Note: There will not be a post to this blog Friday 5 November. The next post will be Friday 12 November. I can't write about anything elseI can't write about anything else this week except the Glasgow Climate Change Conference (COP26) because the need for an active outcome is so great. For many months now the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres has been calling on all countries to realise that this year and this climate conference, together constitute a crucial opportunity for countries to agree on concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) target of less than 2°C temperature rise. An insider view
His invitation last night was to explain some of the issues to be discussed at COP26. Rich countries, he said, have an obligation to poor and developing countries to help them get their share of all the comforts rich countries enjoy. What poor countries need above all else is energy and rich countries need to fund that but using clean energy, not energy produced by fossil fuel and coal. Hydro, wind, sea, nuclear will, he thinks, all have their place. We do, he said have to mitigate the effect of global warming by agreeing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide because it is more long term then methane. We also will need to adapt as the earth warms. Both mitigation and adaptation will be necessary. The likely outcome?I came away impressed by the complexities of the issues, as related by an insider, and disappointed by the unwillingness of governments to move, given the power and wealth of the fossil fuel enclave. Macey didn't dash hopes of concrete commitments to reducing emissions sufficient to let us reach the 2°, or even 1.5°, but his experience of negotiations and a touch of scepticism about conferencing left him cautious. I also came away disappointed by the lack of passion. There wasn't any feel of urgency, or of this being a life or death issue. I felt there should have been. But at least one person from the audience felt that. In Question and Answer time, she said, "I've heard, that the temperature rise could get to 5° and I'm scared." I am too. Latest reportsIn preparation for Glasgow the UN sent out a synthesis report in September and an updated Synthesis Report on the 25th of October. 'However, the updated report also confirms that for all available Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of all 192 Parties taken together, a sizable increase, of about 16%, in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 is anticipated. Comparison to the latest findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that such an increase, unless changed quickly, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century. 'Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, said: “At the same time, the message from this update is loud and clear: Parties must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris Agreement’s goal of well below 2C – ideally 1.5C – by the end of the century. Overshooting the temperature goals will lead to a destabilised world and endless suffering, especially among those who have contributed the least to the GHG emissions in the atmosphere. This updated report unfortunately confirms the trend already indicated in the full Synthesis Report, which is that we are nowhere near where science says we should be,” she cautioned.' Will care for the earth and respect for all humanity prevail ?This is a significantly crucial conference. What happens to our earth for the rest of this century may depend on decisions made here. I won't be here to see the long term or even the medium term outcomes. But my grandchildren will. □ John McInnes Friday 29 October 2021 ##########
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